Calgary In Crisis: Rethink Our Future!
Seems like everyone is saying “The world as we knew it has changed forever.” Sure it has for now, but will the changes in how we “live, work and play” during the lockdown be permanent or will we go back to the old ways in a year or two. Almost everyone is guessing what the new norm will be.
Some are suggesting the apocalypse is near - the pandemic crisis will be followed by a global debit/economic crisis, followed by a climate change crisis. Is the world now in permanent “Crisis Mode?”
Nobody really knows - but urbanists in particular love to speculate what urban living will be like in the future. Daily there are new posts on social media and articles in the traditional new media about what the future will look like. Things like:
Will there be an increased demand for single-family homes?
Will transit ridership drastically drop?
Will working from home become more widely accepted?
Will on-line shopping mean the end of retail stores and malls?
Will post-secondary students op for on-line learning?
Will more roads be converted to cycling and walking tracks?
Will global travel become more restricted and tedious?
While some want a return to the “old normal,” many are hoping the pandemic will bring a better world. The anti-oil and gas lobbyists, hope the new normal will mean less use of fossil fuels (cars and planes, less consumerism, buy local), the anti-car advocates hope the future will be less roads and more space for pedestrians and cyclists, still others hope the future will include a guaranteed minimum income for everyone and better long term healthcare for seniors.
Given the uncertainty of the future, some Calgarians are asking “Is this the right time to move ahead with mega public projects like the Green Line, the new arena or the expanded BMO Centre and Arts Commons?”
The “old normal” certainly wasn’t perfect. Now is the time to put everything on hold for a year and rethink Calgary’s future.
For the past 50+ years Calgary has benefitted from a robust downtown as one of North America’s largest concentrations of office buildings and corporate headquarters. However the future of its downtown as the city’s economic engine is uncertain at best with 25% of the office space sitting vacant. (photo credit: Peak Aerials).
Rethink Housing
Will Calgarians/Canadians want big single-family homes so everyone can spread out, rather than live in smaller apartments in multi-family buildings? Will new homes be equipped with not just one home office, but several? Will people want a backyard so they can have a vegetable garden or their own playground? Will a cold room become the new wine cellar? Will empty nesters keep their big suburban homes longer, rather than move to a condo where all the amenities have been closed for the past few months? Is the future of Calgary in the suburbs and their new communities, rather than the city centre?
While there is no research showing people living in dense communities were at more risk of being infected with the COVID-19 virus, will Calgarians/Canadians avoid multi-family buildings just in case? Better safe than sorry!
If so, what happens to plans for urban villages that are all multi-family buildings across Canada. Calgary has several - East Village, University District, Currie, Marda Loop, West District and Westman Village and the proposed new Rivers District. Will they all become white elephants?
Does the Rivers District Master Plan and its Community Revitalization Levy even make sense in the new economy? For that matter - does the City’s 50-year Municipal Development Plan that calls for 50% of all population growth over the next 40 years to be in established communities fit with the new reality?
Link: Corona virus spread urban vs suburbs
Rethink Downtown
The entire Nexen Building, one of Calgary’s signature downtown office buildings sits empty. Yes, all 37 floors and 600,000 square feet.
Will people want to work in high-rises where they must travel in elevators with strangers several times a day? Imagine the line ups at the elevators if only two people are allowed to ride in an elevator at time, which is what is happening now.
Several reports have indicated that corporations now realize letting people work from home is not only viable, but significantly reduces their need for office space?
The reports also document that some (not all) employees love working from home which saves them time (no more long commute) and money (no more parking, vehicle or transit costs)?
Some experts are forecasting 20% of the workforce will work from home in the future.
This would not be good for Calgary’s downtown (or any downtown for that matter), which already has 25% office vacancy rate.
Have Calgarians/Canadians learned there is life beyond attending professional sports and major events?
Will Calgarians be hesitant to attend cultural events at Arts Commons and other downtown cultural centers where they have to mingle with hundreds of strangers in a confined space?
Others are postulating that business and convention travel if not a thing of the past will be significantly reduced? What does this mean for Calgary’s downtown hoteliers who are focused on corporate travel?
It would be prudent to ask, “Does Calgary need a new arena, expanded BMO Centre and Arts Commons?
Will Calgary need a downtown Convention Centre in the future?”
Link: Work-from-home success changing Calgary office use assumptions
Link: World Economic Forum: This is how coronavirus could reshapes our cities forever
Rethink Education
Could new buildings like the 15 floor $270M McKimmie Tower at the University of Calgary be empty in the future?
In the future, post-secondary schools could offer on-line courses at a lower cost given they don’t have any campus operating cost.
Several university and colleges have already announced it will continue on-line teaching as much as possible for the Fall 2020 semester.
Have post-secondary students realized the benefits of learning on-line - no travel time or travel costs?
The potential for reduced tuition for on-line courses would be very attractive to students. Would this also mean less need for instructors?
Might this also mean the need for large campuses - which are expensive to build and operate - are no longer needed?
Post-secondary campuses could shrink not grow. Does this represent a new development opportunity?
Or will our postsecondary campuses look like downtown with 25% of the buildings vacant?
For School Boards, on-line learning could reduce the need for more teachers and schools? It could also insure all students get taught the same content and by the best teachers.
Is now the time we rethink how and where we teach our children using 21st century technology?
Rethink Transit
The Green Line will cost $10+ billion to complete the entire line. Building a shorter Green Line for $5B (dark green) and then hoping to get another $5B in the future makes no sense if transit ridership declines for several reasons.
One has to wonder what is going to happen to transit ridership in the new world. Will Calgarians want to continue to ride back and forth to work or school on crowded LRT cars and buses full of strangers some coughing and sneezing?
If more people work from home - even if just a couple of days a week - will they take transit on the other days, especially if they are going to work at non-peak times?
Currently, the biggest users of transit are downtown commuters. If downtown continues to struggle (and it will), transit ridership will continue to decline. Post-secondary students are also big users, but if they opt for more on-line learning, their usage would decrease also.
If transit ridership falls, so will frequency of service which then leads to less use. It’s a never ending downward spiral.
This begs the question – Should Calgary proceed with the Green Line or should we wait to see what happens with transit ridership. Will there be sufficient ridership to support $10 billion dollar investment to complete the entire route. Would we be wiser to focus on BRT vs LRT?
Link: A Post-Pandemic Reality Check for Transit Boosters
Rethink Roads
For decades the car has been perceived by the majority of Calgarians as the most convenient way to get around the city. Will it now also be perceived as the healthiest? Similarly, cycling use might increase as an alternative to transit – at least on good weather days.
Will this mean the need for more roads and cycling infrastructure? Maybe not!
Perhaps we have gotten so used to the convenience of “Zooming” and “Face Timing” with family and friends, that we don’t need to hop in the car as often to visit them as we used to. More home delivery for our everyday needs would also reduce vehicles on the road.
And, if more people work from home and more parents of school age children and post-secondary students opt for on-line learning, traffic may be reduced to the point where current road capacity is sufficient. Maybe even excessive!
In fact, some roads might be redesigned to allow for one lane to be converted into a bike lane or a walking promenade.
Some Calgarians are already lobbying for the vehicle-only bridge under the Centre Street bridge to be converted into a pedestrian/cycling-only bridge permanently and one lane of 50th Ave SW, from Elbow Drive to Stanley Road to be turned over to pedestrians and cyclist use.
Could we see Memorial Drive become a weekend promenade permanently?
Rethink Shopping
For the past decade, many cities have banned the “drive thru.” But with the pandemic, many restaurants and cafes were transformed into “drive thru” service only. When in London UK, recently, I was surprised at how many stores, including department stores offered what they called “take away” or “click + collect” service, meaning you just pick-up your order that is waiting for you at the store, as you have previous shopped and paid on-line – no shopping just pick-up and go.
The Arnold Churgin store on downtown’s Stephen Avenue Walk was its flagship store for decades. It has sat empty now for several years. The future of SAW and downtown as a retail centre is uncertain at best. It is one of the few downtowns in North America that can boast three downtown department stores, but for how long.
Do we return the early and mid 20th century when home delivery of milk, bread, eggs and butter was commonplace, only now it is home delivery of your entire grocery list? Could grocery stores become pick-up only?
You would just drive-up to the front of a building pick-up your groceries that have already been packaged and paid for and drive off. Will there be a need for big grocery stores in the future?
If this happens, there would be less need for parking which would drastically change our streets and shopping malls. Could entire shopping malls become more “pick-up and go” malls? Is this the end of the huge parking lots that are a sea of asphalt much of the time?
Will Calgary’s malls and main streets become like downtown. What happens to Stephen Avenue if The Bay and Simons close?
Is personal shopping a thing of the past?
Rethink Main Streets
Does the pandemic and threat of more in the future mean the end of the café culture i.e. where people hang out for hours with their computers and chat with friends, seating next to strangers? Will Calgarians continue to want to sit in crowded patios along 17th Ave, Stephen Ave or Kensington with strangers sitting and walking by?
Signs like this a popping up everywhere in Calgary. Every week more small independent businesses are announcing that they are not reopening and national chain stores are filing for bankruptcy.
Will people still flock to the gym when this is over, or have they discovered they can save themselves time and money working out at home or perhaps they have realized the benefits of walking in their neighbourhood for their physical and mental well-being?
Given peoples’ diminished bank accounts will going to a restaurant might become more of a special event than a “couple of times a week” activity?
Have people realized how much money they can save if they eat at home?
Have then come to enjoy cooking and baking at home, which used to be the norm?
While online shopping for everything from groceries to clothes was on the rise before the pandemic, it is quickly becoming commonplace.
Once people learn how the system works and how convenient it is, they are liable to continue to use it. Humans are creatures of comfort and convenience.
What does this mean for main street shop owners? Will our main streets have 25% of the storefronts empty in the future?
Should the City of Calgary, continue to plan and invest millions in the creation or improvement of 20+ main streets? Or should we wait and see what happens?
Does the City of Calgary continue with its new policy of free 30-minute parking to allow for the quick “pick-up and go” shopping? Maybe even expand it? Do we see a return to the “drive-thru?”
Rethink Parks & Pathways
Calgary boast 500+ parks, 100+ dog parks. All Calgarians are within a 5 minute walk to a green space.
Calgary is fortunate to have some of the best and biggest parks and pathway infrastructure in the world, but still there have been complaints they are too crowded to keep a safe distance.
Should our parks have more walking pathways rather than just free-range walking? Should we create a one-way system of pathways so people don’t have to pass each other?
Would one-way neighbourhood sidewalks work better at allowing people to social distance?
Planners and urban designers will have to rethink the design of parks, pathways and plazas which were designed to be meeting and gathering spaces to places that can they accommodate small groups social distancing from one another. Will parks look more like mazes with walking paths that criss-crossing them to allow for more walking and more distancing.
Link: Our cities may never look that same again after the pandemic
ReTHINK mega projects
It would be prudent for Council to rethink the shortened Green Line proposal and the new arena, as well as the expansion of the BMO and Arts Commons. Perhaps we should be focusing on the new MAX lines with their links to hospitals, rather than being so downtown centric. Can we make do with the Saddledome and our existing meeting and convention facilities until we see what is the future for major events? Perhaps every capital project decision on the City’s plate should be given a year’s hiatus – no decisions, no contracts – a complete stop until we have a better understanding of what the future looks like.
Last year the City of Calgary had a $250 million short-fall in revenues due to a 25% downtown vacancy rate; this year it could easily exceed $500M as the value of commercial real estate across the city tumbles. Sure the City could just raise the mill-rate, but higher taxes will result in more business closures which results in an endless downward spiral.
The City of Calgary is in a financial crisis that Council seems unable to deal with i.e. how to cut spending?
Last Word
Calgary needs to face the fact it could experience negative growth in the near future not only because of the pandemic, but the dramatic change in international oil & gas politics and poor Provincial and Federal economic leadership.
My mantra is “linking vision with reality.” The reality is Caglary, Alberta and Canada can’t afford to spend on mega projects as if nothing has happened.
If you like this blog, you will like these blogs:
CBC: Green Line BRT better than LRT says former transit manager
Calgary’s Municipal Development Plan: A Herculean Task!
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