The Uncertain Future Facing Calgary Transit Post COVID
Recently the Globe & Mail published a piece about the huge hit taken by public transit in Western Canada due to COVID. This is also true for urban areas around the world, including mega cities like London and New York.
Link: Western Canada Transit Systems Have Taken a Huge Hit from the Pandemic
For the past year, Calgarians have seen buses and trains drive by with few or no one in them and wondered if there is a better way to provide transit for those who need it without the expense of operating empty trains and buses.
In the article, Calgary Transit spokesman Stephen Tauro agreed the pandemic could spur long-term change. For example, an increase in the number of people working from home might cut commuter traffic, but might also prompt those people to rethink car ownership and use transit in different ways. “We know, historically, that in any great, vibrant city, the backbone is a good transit system, and we don’t see that going away,” Mr. Tauro said.
We know that Calgary’s ridership is below 30 per cent of what it was in 2019. Due to COVID, many of those who still have jobs stopped their daily commute by working from home. There has also been a huge increase in online shopping and education.
However, even before the pandemic, the decline in Calgary’s employment levels, particularly in the downtown, meant a noticeable decline in transit ridership in recent years. .
While there are lot of people speculating on what will happen, in reality nobody knows about the extent of the pandemic impact and how long it will last.
Optimists think transit ridership will quickly return to pre-pandemic levels, but perhaps a different pattern with fewer morning and afternoon commuters and more all day users will emerge. The pessimists think it will be a long time before transit use returns to pre-pandemic numbers, if ever, as the vast majority of people have figured out how to manage their lives without daily commuting or using transit.
I asked Neil McKenrick, a retired Calgary Transit planner what he thinks the future might be for Calgary Transit.
The fun soap bubble in the photo is from the bubble machine that someone living on the 100 block of 7th Ave SW used to generate bubbles that would float out their second floor window onto th street. Too much fun!
McKendrick’s thoughts:
I think, like those quoted in the article the most honest answer would be “I don’t know what will happen but I’m hoping, for the sake of the once successful system, that things will improve”. Currently, it seems that transit officials are maintaining an optimistic view. Really, what else can they say?
At this time it is difficult to predict when the recent surge in Covid infections and continuing restrictions that affect work, school, recreation, social gatherings and shopping will end. But beyond the COVID restrictions that have drastically reduced transit ridership, there are other factors to consider. It is truly a pivotal time where predicting what the new normal will look like is very difficult.
To help understand if and when transit ridership may recover it is helpful to look at what influences travel by transit. Trips on transit are a portion of overall city-wide travel which is heavily influenced by the numbers of people going to work and school.
The volume of daily work and school trips is very large and prior to the pandemic most people were travelling 5 or even 6 days per week with a high percent of these trips occurring during a few peak hours. Shopping, recreation and entertainment trips are also significant but these mainly occur during off peak times. Recent, pre-pandemic data showed that transit carried about 10 percent of all travel and, over half of the trips made to and from downtown.
Clearly, these patterns have changed. In early 2020, and now extending into 2021 the COVID pandemic has resulted in huge reductions in the total volume of daily travel and significantly lower transit use.
So what influences some portion of Calgary travellers to chose transit when they travel? Many transit users don’t like driving on congested roads and looking for limited and expensive parking. Some appreciate that transit is cheaper. There was a growing trend of avoiding the cost of owning a car, or in the case of a household, more than one car. Transit customers also mention that it is more convenient and healthier to have a short walk to a transit stop and then let someone else do the driving while they relax, read a book or have a nap.
A July 2020 report to City Council (Link: Calgary Transit Ridership, Revenue and RouteAhead Update July 2020) showed that Calgary Transit’s average weekday transit trips had dropped by nearly 75 percent compared to the early months in 2020 and nearly 80 percent since 2016.
The report notes that, in response to a recent survey, nearly half of previous transit users would use transit less than before and would be less comfortable doing so or they didn’t know. As this report confirms, due to the pandemic transit travel has declined drastically and may not rebound very quickly.
But, it also confirms that the decline in transit ridership began several years ago. Since 2016, Calgary has experienced increasing unemployment, particularly in the downtown, due to depressed oil prices.
Aside from the impact of reduced employment prior to the pandemic, Calgary Transit was having difficulty funding adequate levels of service to new communities.
Quite simply if service is poor or non-existent there will be no ridership from these areas.
With the introduction of greater fare discounts for low income Calgarians, the level of financial support needed to pay for transit service is being eroded. Transit budgets were previously based on revenue from fares covering 50 to 55 percent of operating costs.
Now fares are only contributing just over 40 percent towards costs. So, an even greater level of tax support will be needed to keep pace with growth and encourage use. This will certainly be a challenge given all of the other municipal services that are needing greater tax support.
In the past couple of decades, Calgary Transit ridership has been through several periods of decline and rapid growth related to economic swings not to mention a transit strike in 2001. During these times, Calgary Transit has done an admirable job of reducing costs, improving efficiencies in service delivery, such as using smaller buses and now a new On Demand service in some areas. New technologies have also improved the customer experience related to trip planning - such as seeing when your bus will arrive and new fare payment methods on smart phones.
One positive is that Calgary Transit reports that customer satisfaction remains high.
So, will transit ridership return to previous levels? The answer certainly depends the factors that influence travel plus a few others I have mentioned. Quite simply, there needs to be a significant increase in the number of people travelling to work and school.
Getting beyond the pandemic is only part of the transit ridership challenge.
Even with an end to Covid restrictions people will need to regain confidence to travel safely with other passengers on crowded buses or CTrains. Employment levels, particularly in the downtown need to improve to pre 2016 levels.
While it is likely that working from home and on-line education will decline, there may be enough retention of these habits to reduce peak period travel volumes and the associated traffic and parking congestion that helps attract people to transit.
Calgary has a great transit system and a history of strong ridership buoyed by surges in economic and physical growth. So, as long as Calgary’s economy recovers, downtown office buildings fill up, transit service levels are increased and people regain confidence in safe transit travel, then transit ridership will increase to and beyond previous levels.
How long will this take is the great unknown. It could be decades!
Link: Calgary Transit Ridership, Revenue and RouteAhead Update July 2020
Last Word
“Given these realities, investing billions right now to construct the Green Line and the millions of new dollars required to operate it each year is a huge gamble. Maybe it would be prudent to pause this project.” says Neil McKendrick.
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